I might be crazy but the other day I was looking at the odds to win the Big 12 regular season and I’ll be damned if I don’t think I discovered a win. How many teams can realistically win the Big 12 regular season title? Does Texas really have a chance with a point guard not tall enough to see over the counter at most convenience stores? How about Oklahoma with no stars and a bunch of transfers from schools so small you have to wear readers to see em. I guess BYU could be a legit contender but can they really go from never winning the West Coast Conference to winning the Big 12 in their first year? Seems highly unlikely.
At the time, the odds to win the Big 12 were:
Kansas +220
Houston +300
Baylor +650
Those odds have changed a bit, as BYU is now +700 and Baylor, after dropping two games including a neutral floor loss to Duke, is now +750. But my central thesis remains the same. If I bet the right dollar amounts on Kansas, Houston and Baylor, I win as long as one of those teams wins the regular season title. What am I missing? Isn’t it a lock that one of those three schools wins it this year? I sure as hell like my chances. So I put the most on Kansas, a little less on Houston and half what I bet on Kansas on Baylor. Here’s how it hypothetically plays out using $2500 in total wagers.
$1100 on Kansas pays $2420 to win $1029 (after subtracting for the other two bets).
$900 on Houston pays $2700 to you win $1100.
$500 on Baylor pays $3250 to win $1250.
If it works so well for the Big 12, why not use it for other conferences? Well, the odds don’t always work in your favor. Purdue is -145 to win the Big 10 so that makes it more difficult. Plus, if it’s not Purdue, there’s four other teams with a legit shot. The Big East feels more unpredictable with Seton Hall beating UConn by 15 the other day and Marquette, Creighton and Villanova losing to lesser opponents. The SEC feels doable with Tennesseee +270, Auburn +460 and Kentucky +600. A&M is the only other school that may contend but I don’t like watching the SEC because then you end up listening to Jimmy Dykes and honestly, there’s no amount of money in the world you can win that makes it worth it if you have to listen to Jimmy Dykes for an entire season. I know there’s a lot of problems in the world, the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, lingering inflation, a lack of affordable housing, but none of these problems compares to the tragedy that Jimmy Dykes is still allowed to announce college basketball games. It’s like listening to your grandpa tell stories on the front porch only the stories are horribly boring, maybe the most boring stories that have ever been told, yet for some reason he insists on telling them over and over again.
But I digress. The point is, just take Kansas, Houston and Baylor to win the Big 12. You’ll already be a big winner because you’ll never have to listen to Jimmy Dykes.
