Every year, I vow not to bet on the NBA Draft, and every year, I bet on the NBA Draft. I know I’m not an NBA GM. I know I don’t have a complete understanding of every team’s roster or their long-term plan if ther even is one. (Bulls?) I know it makes little to no sense to bet on the majority of bets offered by DraftKings or FanDuel. And yet, here we go. Why? Because the end of the NBA season marks the end of the gambling season and unless you’re going to bet on the 2024 Cornhole Championships, the NBA Draft is the only game in town. Plus, I watch a ton of college basketball and I feel as though I have a decent grasp of each prospect’s game and potebntial for growth. Plus, it’s Wednesday and the entertaining as all get out Presidential debate and the new season of The Bear doesn’t come out until Thursday.
So without further adieu, here are the bets I’m making for tonight’s draft, mmay of which were make in the last few weeks leading up to tonight:
Bronny James over 39.5: If anyone takes a kid that shouldn’t even be drafted before the 39th pick, God help our country and the future of democracy.
Ron Holland over 9.5: I saw him in Portland, live, at the Nike Summit a year ago and he couldn’t dribble or shoot. Great athlete for sure but how can you go in the Top 10 if you can’t dribble or shoot. A year later, I’m still not sure he can dribble or shoot.
Dalton Knecht to be a Top 10 Pick: The odds were only -180 a few weeks ago. They went all the way to -500 and then it went off the board. I think that’s a good sign.
Parlay Castle Top 5 and Terrance Shannon Jr., in 1st Round: I took it because I think Castle is one of the five best prospects in the draft. I hope the Spurs don’t mess it up by taking another long Frenchman.
Parlay Dunn and Shannon Jr to be drafted in 1st Round: Even odds and every mock draft has them both going in the first round. A defensive stopper and the best downhill driver in the class. What could go wrong?
That’s about it. Nothing too fancy. Just a few bets to make the first round way more interesting than it otherwise would be.
Postscript:
I will admit I was sweating quite a bit towards the end of the first draft. The first round is a reminder that most teams are drafting for the future, not the present. Teams that know they can’t compete for a title now have no interest in taking veteran college players. They want 18 year-olds they can develop. Conversely, teams with rosters built to win now have no interest in taking an 18 year-old that won’t be able to contribute in any meaningful way anytime soon. So when no one had taken Terrance Shannon Jr. or Ryan Dunn by the 26th pick, I worried no one in the first round would. Luckily, the Wolves wanted to add a scorer off the bench and the Suns wanted to add a defensive wing. But who could’ve known that for sure? And who could’ve known Knect would’ve fallen to the Lakers at 17 after oddsmakers had him pegged as on overall favorite to be a Top 10 pick. The lesson here is there is no lesson. Betting on the NBA Draft is dumb. Fun, but dumb.
