Nobody knows. That answers the question, ‘Who will win the college football playoff this year?’ Nobody knows, just like nobody knows if Kamala will beat Trump, if Iran will start a regional war, if coral reefs in the Caribbean will be saved, if the DOJ will break up Google, or if I can lose 10 lbs. this year.
Nobody knows. That’s why I wonder why some gamblers try to predict the national champion and place a large wager on one team. How can you win money that way?
Every year before the football and basketball seasons start, I scour the Internet, looking for tidbits of information that could lead to an insight that could lead to a winning wager. I read the ESPN guys, the Fox guys, the CBS Sportsnet guys, the Action Network guys, the guy-who-knows-a-guy guys, and Bill Simmons’ guys. And still, I walk away, knowing nobody knows.
“Why do you waste your time reading all that crap?” a friend who quit gambling asked me.
“Because it makes you feel like you’re doing some research before putting money on these things.”
“But most of those guys are idiots. They don’t know any better than you do. Why let all that noise cloud your thinking?”
There is truth to this. For years, I followed ESPN college football writer Bruce Feldman’s picks until I began to worry that my daughter would never be able to afford college if I continued down that road. The pressure to pick games against the spread every week, and write a column about it when you’re not winning, seems like a living hell if you consider yourself a serious gambler. It’s like being a marriage counselor while you’re going through your second horrible divorce. Oh the hypocrisy!
Nobody knows if Florida will beat Miami on opening weekend or if Notre Dame is better than Texas A&M on the road this early in the season. Nobody knows anything.
But here’s what I do know. I know that DraftKings lets you parlay teams that will make the 12-team playoff field this year. And I know that all the ‘experts’ say Georgia, Ohio State, and Oregon are the three most talented teams in college football. The AP poll backs this up as Georgia, Ohio State, and Oregon are ranked 1,2 and 3 to start the season. If you parlay these three teams just to make the playoff, the odds are -127. That’s simple. That’s easy. And that is my biggest play of the season.
Sure, there are risks. Georgia has one of the most challenging schedules in the country, with trips to Alabama, Texas, and Ole Miss. Oregon is joining a new conference that is far more physical than the old one, and will have to travel to ungodly places like West Lafayette and Madison, where there are no pine trees or vegetarian menu options. And Ohio State is starting a Kansas State portal guy at QB, which seems odd because Kansas State hasn’t exactly been knocking on the college football championship door in recent years.
The other bet I like is taking the top four Heisman favorites and sprinkling the same amount on each.
Dillon Gabriel +750, Carson Beck +800, Quinn Ewers +1000, and Jaxson Dart +1400 are all offered at pretty good odds. I’m happy if any of the four wins, because as my father always says, “winning money is better than losing it.”
So that’s it. That’s the post. My biggest play, by far, is taking Georgia, Ohio State, and Oregon to all make the college playoff. It gives me something to root for all season without getting caught up in trying to pick weekly winners against the spread. That’s the kind of bet I love.
Go BulldogBuckeyeDucks!
