There are some moments as a gambler when you see a bet and think, ‘There’s no way this can lose.’ I had that moment a few times this year. The first was when I bet the Seattle Mariners to go over 84 wins last season. (win) The second was when I bet that Klay Thompson would average under 20.2 ppg this past regular season. (loss) The third was when I bet that Indiana’s Jalen Hood-Schifino would be drafted before Michigan’s Jett Howard. if you watch the game of basketball, and that’s what NBA GM’s and scouts get paid to do, there’s no way in hell Howard could get drafted before Schifino. Yet for some reason, Draftkings made that wager available, first at -190 and later at -250. There’s never been a more sure thing.
And this leads me to my latest can’t lose wager:
WHICH TEAM WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST-SCORING GAME IN THE NBA FINALS?
DENVER NUGGETS -140.
When I first saw that line, I couldn’t believe my eyes. How could the odds be so low? The Denver Nuggets averaged nearly 116 ppg in the regular season. The Miami Heat averaged a league-low 109. The Nuggets had put up 124 and 125 on the Suns and 132 on the Lakers. The Heat managed 128 in a game against Boston but other than that, most games barely cracked 100.
Yes, I knew the Heat slow the pace and limit possessions. Yes, I knew the Heat play a much tougher, more physical style of defense than either the Suns or the Lakers. But I also know that the Heat struggle on offense and so the thinking went that even if the Heat were able to somehow win the series, the Nuggets would still likely have the highest-scoring game in the series because they’d at least have a one night offensive explosion. Oh, and playing in altitude couldn’t hurt either.
How did the oddsmakers make that line only -140? At first glance, it appeared like a misprint. Shouldn’t the odds have been more in the -250 or -300 range?
Whenever a line looks too good to be true, it usually is. And so now here we sit, heading into Game 4, with the Miami Heat somehow owning the highest scoring game in the series, their 111-108 victory over Denver in Game 2. It’s crazy to think that the Denver Nuggets may easily win this series and never score higher than 111 points. Sometimes, I really hate gambling. But then quickly I realize that if I didn’t gamble, I’d just be watching the Miami Heat play basketball for the sheer love of the game. And really, why in the world would anyone other than Pat Riley and Eric Spoelstra’s parents want to do that?
