Every year I hope Gonzaga wins the national title because I vividly remember being in college, discovering the joys of marijuana and watching Matt Santangelo lead the Zags to one of their first epic tourney runs. Stockton. Dickau. Stepp. Bouldin. Morrison. Timme. Gonzaga has more notable white guys than the Beatles. For years, they were the tiny engine that could shining a light on everything that was right with life in small town Spokane. Now rumors are flying that they’re ready to upgrade conferences to cash in. It may be time to move on from the Zags and find another small town program worthy of our attention.
As for actually making money, this year I’m taking the Houston Cougars to make the Final Four. Remember Houston? They were involved in my favorite college game of all-time, the 1983 NCAA Final Four matchup in Albuquerque against Louisville. It was Milt Wagner, Lancaster Gordon and the McCray brothers against Clyde, Hakeem, Michael Young, Alvin Franklin and Larry Micheaux with Benny Anders coming off the bench. There were so many amazing dunks in that game it made you forget how much you hated Billy Packer.
Anyway, this version of Houston ain’t Phi Slamma Jamming anything but they are loaded. Jamal Shead returns a year older and wiser. Marcus Sasser, arguably the best lead guard in the country, returns after sitting out last year with an injury and is joined by 5-star freshman Jarace Walker who NBA scouts tout as a potential lottery pick. Add in the fact that Kelvin Sampson is the best defensive coach in the country and that this year’s Final Four is in Houston and you see why picking Houston can’t possibly go wrong, until it does.
The problem is Houston is -370 to win the American Athletic. And while I think that’s as close to a lock as one can get on the conference regular season bets, I don’t like to risk that much to make the payout worth it. So, in addition to a Final Four bet, I’ll be looking to parlay Houston with other conference favorites at plus money in hopes that a few of them come in and we finish in positive territory. Here are the bets I’m making prior to the start of conference play.
HOUSTON TO MAKE THE FINAL FOUR (+330)
The odds were better (+580) just a few short weeks ago but that’s the power of media hype. Memphis is likely the only real competition here for the regular season title and, well, let’s just say Penny Hardaway is no Kelvin Sampson. You can take Houston to win it all (+750) but when you get to the Final Four really anyone can win. I’d rather take the odds of them making it to the Final Four than winning it all.
HOUSTON + SAN DIEGO STATE TO WIN REGULAR SEASON CONFERENCE (+225)
Wyoming is the only real competition in the Mountain West and they’re not off to a great start. Like Houston, San Diego State plays the best defense in the conference and they’re led by adults that seem like they’ve been playing college basketball for forever. Anything can happen but this feels good.
HOUSTON + ST. LOUIS TO WIN REGULAR SEASON CONFERENCE (+344)
I was originally on Dayton here but St. Louis is just as good and the odds are quite a bit better. Is Travis Ford a good coach? I don’t know but as a HS Senior in 1988, I attended the ABCD All-Star camp in Tennessee and was matched up against Ford in one of my first games. “He can shoot,” my coach told me. Really? He had something like 24 at the half. He was literally pulling up from one or two dribbles past half court. This was way before Steph Curry made range like that as common as Kyrie saying something nonsensical. By the time I realized I had to guard him the moment he passed half-court, it was too late. I was on the bench and never got a second chance. So the way I see it, Travis Ford owes me one.
HOUSTON + UCLA TO WIN REGULAR SEASON CONFERENCE (+262)
Arizona and UCLA are both at +185. I trust UCLA more with Campbell and Jaquez coming back. You could just bet both and feel pretty confident that either UCLA or Arizona will win the Pac-12.
You can also pair Houston to win its conference with other random bets you like on the board.
HOUSTON + JUSTIN JEFFERSON TO HAVE MOST RECEIVING YARDS
HOUSTON + BARKLEY TO WIN COMEBACK PLAYER OF THE YEAR
HOUSTON + SAUCE GARDNER TO WIN NFL DEFENSIVE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR
And if someone gets hurt or Houston goes on a cold spell and loses the regular season title? Well, as my uncle Paul used to always say, ‘That’s why they call it gambling.’
