It’s finally here. After a long hot summer of nothing to watch but horrible Supreme Court decisions, horribler stock market declines and the horriblest war in Ukraine, NBA and college basketball are finally back. And while there aren’t many college basketball props to wager on, the NBA gives us so many options. So while we all wait for inflation to reverse course, the FED to lower interest rates and the S&P 500 to start another bull run, might as well place a few NBA wagers to feel like we’re doing something useful with our discretionary income. Here are a few of the ones I like so far:
KLAY THOMPSON UNDER 20.3 ppg
For his career, thompson is averaging 19.5 ppg. Biut this bet isn’t about whether Thompson could average over 20 agame this year. Of course he could. This bet is about understanding the Warriors roster and knowing the team wants to develop its young talent. Jordan Poole, Moses Moody and Jonathan Kuminga all need minutes and shot attempts to grow. So Klay will play fewer minutes, and hoist fewer jumpers, during the regular season to save his legs for the playoffs. The only way this bet loses is if one of the aforementioned second year players gets hurt and Klay has to shoulder more of the offensive load early in the season, or if he doesn’t play the required 41 regular season games for the wager to stand.
LONGEST WIN STREAK OVER 14.5 GAMES
In the last 10 seasons, there’s only been one year where a team did not exceed this number. Last year, the Suns won 18 games in a row. The year before that, the Bucks did too. In 2017, the Rockets won 17 in a row and the Celtics and 76ers won 16. The list goes on and on. So why is the number a little low? Sure the league is more competitive. but is it really that much more competitive than it was last season, or the year before or the year before that? The odds (-130) suggest that some team will get hot this year and eclipse this number as it has in 9 of the past 10 seasons. The Warriors, Bucks, Clippers, 76ers, Nuggets and a few others are all capable.
BANCHERO (+180) or MURRAY (+550) FOR ROY
No on else is winning this award. Mathurin can put up big numbers but Indiana will be so bad it won’t matter. Jabari Smith Jr. will make an impact on the defensive end but he’ll have to fit in with a talented roster and play second fiddle to a developing Green. Jaden Ivey is too erratic. Dyson Daniels can’t shoot. The one longshot that’s interesting is Tari Eason at +2500 but he won’t get enough playing time initially to matter. I’d put more on Banchero and sprinkle a little Keegan Murray’s way as a hedge.
PISTONS LONGEST WIN STREAK 3.5 (-130)
This is just fun. Are you telling me Cade Cunningham won’t develop enough to lead the Pistons to 4 wins in a row at any point this season? That’s can’t be possible, can it? The same can be said for the Orlando Magic (3.5, -110) and Houston Rockets (3.5, +135). These teams aren’t supposed to be tanking early. They have to win 4 in a row at some point. I imagine rooting for this bet to come through will be just like rooting for your kid to make 5 free throws in a row before you go to bed. It might take a long ass time, and it’ll be super annoying to keep starting over, but eventually they’ll get it.
SAN ANTONIO SPURS UNDER 22.5 WINS
They’re tanking. The media knows it. The fan base knows it. Everyone knows it. How do you win any games when Keldon Johnson is your best player? No offense to Keldon Johnson but this team will be historically bad, on purpose. I do wonder how Pop is going to make it through an entire year of losing on purpose? Is there enough good wine in the world to coach your way through a tanking season that’s tanking from day one? Guess we’ll find out.
SUNS UNDER 52.5 WINS
Things are bad in Phoenix. CP3 is a year older and he was already defying father time. The owner is selling, the center doesn’t talk to the coach, Crowder wants out. It just feels like they’re going to have a bad year and be replaced by the Clippers as the team in the west that can defeat GS.
PASCAL SIAKAM OVER 22.2 PPG
He averaged 22.8 last season and had a stretch of games towards the end where he was over 30 every night. The Raptors are deep but Siakam has talked about taking the next step and becoming a first team All-NBA performer. If he has that mindset, he easily reaches this number.
DARIUS GARLAND OVER 8.1 APG
He averaged 8.6 assists per game last season. Now he gets to kick out to Donovan Mitchell. I guess you can argue Mitchell will take the ball out of his hands but it also means Garland has a better finisher to pass to. Plus, Mobley should be better offensively in pick and roll situations.
DEJOUNTE MURRAY OVER 7.1 APG
He averaged 9.2 assists per game last season and the talent around him just improved a ton. Now instead of running screen roll with Jakob Poeltl, he gets to do it with Capela, Collins and Okongwu. Sure Young will take the ball out of his hands some but it feels far more likely that Young will come off screens and play off the ball more than the other way around. This is one of my favorites. No way he averages less this number.
It’s late. I’m tired. But if there’s anything I’m missing that feels like a sure thing, let me know.
