How much does personal bias play into gambling decisions? Tonight, the Kansas Jayhawks play the North Carolina Tar Heels for the national championship. A group that I lead has the Tar Heels and we stand to make a little cheddar if North Carolina is able to pull off the upset. And an upset it would be. Nate Silver has Kansas as a 68% favorite to win the game. So why do I still like North Carolina so much? Is it because their win over Duke was such a great game that I’ve been lulled into a false sense of overconfidence? Is it because Hubert Davis cries tears of joy and Bill Self forgot to order tears from his wealthy donors? Even if we didn’t have Carolina, I’d want them to win because I like their story so much more. Personal bias aside, here are a few reasons I think the Tar Heels are going to win this game.
Bacot is Better Than McCormack
Four years ago, I saw McCormack play in High School at the Les Schwab Invitational in Oregon. He was as big then as he is now. A man among boys. And over the course of three games he did little to nothing to help his team win. Of course, he’s come a long way since then. He’s developed a nice touch around the basket and understands the game a bit better. But there were still many times this year when McCormack would pick up a foul or make a poor decision and Self would exile him to the bench never to return. He scored 5 pts against TCU, 7 against Creighton and 8 against Providence. When matched up against a decent opposing center, McCormack doesn’t exactly light it up. Bacot is rugged, sturdy and a ridiculously skilled rebounder. Advantage: North Carolina.
Caleb Love is Magical, Ochai Agbaji is Robotic
Don’t get me wrong, Agbaji is a better athlete, a better defender and possibly the better NBA prospect. But Caleb Love is fearless. As one former teammate’s son put it, “Caleb Love is basically college’s version of JR Smith.” Such a great comp. He plays with the same reckless abandon as Smith which includes ridiculous turnovers and incredible shot making. And who wouldn’t love seeing a shitless Love at the championship parade? Agbaji isn’t taking anyone off the dribble in key moments down the stretch. Caleb Love has done it twice now in victories over UCLA and Duke. Here’s hoping he’s got a little more magic left in the tank. Advantage: North Carolina
Manek vs. Braun: Battle Of The Awkward White Guys
Is it me or does Christian Braun look like a poster child for the Aryan nation? Every time I see him, all I can think about are those horrible bad guys who kidnaped Jesse and forced him to cook crystal meth in Breaking Bad. Dude is scary. Brady Manek is scary too but in a much friendlier, I might just-shoot-a-deer-or-two-when-my-playing-days-are-over kinda way. The ultimate question to ask about any role player is ‘Who will be the happier drunk?’ and I don’t think there’s any question Brady Manek wins that competition. Advantage: North Carolina
RJ Davis vs. Jalen Wilson: Who’s The Best Player on the Floor?
To me, this is the key to the game. Not because they’re matched up against each other, because they aren’t. It’s because for long stretches of time, RJ Davis and Jalen Wilson can be the best player on the floor for their respective teams. Davis single handedly kept Carolina in the game in the first half against Duke until Caleb Love figured out how to shoot in a dome. He got wherever he wanted on the floor and hot every mid-range jumper. You got the feeling for a brief moment that he could score every time down. It was a thing of beauty. And it wasn’t the first time. He had it going against Baylor too. If Love needs is the crunch time closer, Davis is the climate-friendly electric vehicle that quietly gets us close to the finish line. Similarly, Jalen Wilson is often the best player on the floor for Kansas. Not the best shooter. The best player. His rebounding and passing create opportunities for others when Agbaji vanishes for long stretches. Advantage: Even with slight edge to Kansas
Hubert Davis and Bill Self
Davis cried after every game because he’s just so happy his guys are having this wonderful experience. Self talks about validating his own coaching career with a second title. What a douche. He doesn’t deserve to win a second one. Huge Advantage: North Carolina
For these reasons and more, I’m taking the Tar Heels tonight to cut down the nets. Here’s a few other bets I’m making, in case you were wondering.
North Carolina +5 (-130)
Game Over 151.5
Jalen Wilson over 9.5 rebounds (-154)
Leaky Black over 4.5 rebounds
Christian Braun over 2.5 assists
Jalen Wilson under 0.5 3’s (+185)
