Nate Silver gets a bad rap. You misjudge one presidential election and all of a sudden your prognostication powers are weaker than Biden’s approval ratings? Here’s the thing about Nate’s NBA season win total predictions… they’re better than mine. Or shall I say, they’re more scientific than mine. Nate’s model (he actually has two models) simulates 50,000 regular season games which is 50,000 more than my model because I don’t have a model.
So here’s what I did to determine my wagers. Rather than simply pick the teams I know and love, I took fivethirtyeight’s NBA season win total projections and compared them to the Vegas lines. I looked for any discrepancy between the lines and the projections that was greater than five games. There were a few surprises, but for the most part I feel comfortable about these bets because they’re based on science! And even though the model did not predict a great year for the Bulls or the Blazers, my two favorite teams, I’m happy to root for them but put my money in smarter places. So without further adieu, here are my season win total bets along with a few other props for good measure.
UNDER BETS
Houston Rockets under 26.5
Projected Wins: 20
So many rookies. So little time. Jalen Green has great hair and Kevin Porter Jr. has potential but other than that this team is in for a long year. I do feel sorry for Eric Gordon. He’s been so solid for so long. It’s gotta be hard to end your career firing blanks. I guess it could be worse. He could be Alec Baldwin this morning. Too soon?
L.A. Lakers under 52.5
Projected Wins: 42
A full 10 games under the projected number! This whole team is based on Anthony Davis staying healthy and here’s the thing about Anthony Davis, he’s injury prone. Watch Anthony Davis run up and down the floor. It’s not Greg Oden-esque but he always seems like he’s about to land on somebody’s foot or tear an achilles. No way he stays healthy for an entire season and when he goes out, no way the Lakers get to 53 wins. Even if he were to stay healthy, this number is far from a lock but given what we know about Davis’ injury history, count me in.
Pelicans under 38.5
Projected Wins: 36
OK, this didn’t officially qualify under the criteria but when rumors of Zion being over 300 lbs. started surfacing like Jaws with kids in the water, you have to take the under. Let’s say Zion misses a ton of games this year and when he does play, he does so with the body language of a guy who wants out. Who leads this team? Brandon Ingram is not a #1 banana.
Brooklyn Nets under 55.5
Projected Wins: 50
This one warms my heart. So tired of Kyrie and KD. So sorry you have to talk the media. Give me Giannis, Jrue and other NBA stars that actually like talking to people and treat people with kindness and spread a little joy in the world on a daily basis.
OVER BETS
Timberwolves over 35.5
Projected Wins: 40
A little bit of a stretch but rooting for Towns & Co. to make a push for the play-in game and 36-46 seems doable for any roster with Anthony Edwards. He’s got enough hops to start a brewery… in his shoes.
Spurs over 28.5
Projected Wins: 36
This is a fascinating Spurs team. I’m calling them the Hickory HighSpurs this year because they’re legitimately the only team in the NBA this year without at least one star. Literally no one is better than anyone else on this team. And you know what? I think that’s gonan make them more successful than anyone thought possible. Zach Collins is the wild card. I still have hope. But even if he can’t give them anything, the combination Murray, White, Johnson, McDermott and Poeltl will scare absolutely no one which should scare everyone. I think they’re going to crush this number and give us a nice little payout.
Hawks over 46.5
Projected Wins: 51
This is the one I didn’t understand. The Hawks have, arguably, the most talented roster in the NBA. That’s not to say they’re built for playoff success. But the NBA regular season is about keeping guys fresh, overcoming injuries and making sure the ship is always pointed in the right direction. No one has more talented 3&D wings than the Atlanta Hawks. Bogdanovic, Hunter, Reddish and Huerter are four incredibly gifted, well rounded shooters and defenders. I can name at least 10 teams that would love to have Reddish and Huerter start for them right now. Hunter has serious breakout potential and Reddish is a freak athlete. If McMillan can get Reddish to understand how good he can be, like Paul George good, this team has no limits. And we haven’t even mentioned Trae Young’s hair! 47-35 is far too low for this team.
A FEW OTHER NBA BETS I LIKE
NBA AWARDS
Rookie of the Year
Jalen Green (+200)
Cade Cunningham (+300)
Instead of trying to pick the winner, why not just put the same amount of money on both and lock in a win? Injuries notwithstanding, both Green and Cunningham should put up numbers that far exceed anyone else in the category.
NBA
TEAM STATS
Most 3’s Made
Utah Jazz (+800)
GS Warriors (+1000)
Similar theory here. Why not put the same amount on the Jazz and Warriors and see if any other team can keep up.
NBA
PLAYER STATS
Assists/Game
Malcolm Brogdon over 5.7 (-115)
If Brogdon stays healthy, he goes over this number easily. And I don’t even like Malcolm Brogdon. He’s slow. And annoying. But the ball is always in his hands, he’s unselfish, and the Pacers have shooters (Chris Duarte!).
NBA
PLAYER STATS
Assists/Game
Dejoiunte Murray over 5.8 (-125)
Last year Pop gave the ball to DeRozen and let him play Paul Pressey-style point forward. It didn’t work out so well. This year the ball will be in Murray’s hands more often and with four guards on the floor at most times, the opportunities to drive and kick to open shooters will be readily available. Plus, Murray’s not the most reliable outside shooter. He loves to drive and dish and his rising assists numbers should help us all.
