Sometimes, being a bad gambler sucks the life right out of you. Take the upcoming college football season. Towards the end of summer, there’s nothing to bet on other than baseball so my attention turns to college football. The only problem is, I don’t know a lot about college football. I mean, I know the basics:
Alabama, Clemson and Ohio State are really good.
Jim Harbaugh is really bad.
Georgia may be good but probably won’t be good.
Notre Dame appears on national TV way too much because of religious connections that have nothing to do with Judaism.
Miami isn’t Miami anymore.
Oregon has the coolest uniforms because of the Nike connection.
UCLA is the job that will ultimately determine whether Chip Kelly gets into heaven.
But I don’t really know the game. I don’t follow the coaching changes or the incoming freshman recruiting classes. Most importantly, I can’t tell you the name of a single offensive lineman in the entire sport. Anyone who understands football knows a strong offensive line is the key to having a good year but I can’t name a single college football offensive lineman. Can you? With college basketball, I can name entire starting lineups and break down the offensive and defensive skill levels of entire rosters. With college football, I don’t know a damn thing. So I should just stay away. I should invest my money in Berkshire Hathaway B shares or sit in cash and wait for the college basketball season to start in November.
Instead, I start looking at every web site I can find to see who ‘the experts’ give the edge. I read ESPN, The Ringer, The Action Network, Sports Illustrated (sort of, not really) Extra Points, The Favorites podcast, and anyone else who claims to know anything about college football. I trust people that claim to be experts because like a huckster at a carnival, they’re good at making me feel like I’m getting access to inside information that the oddsmakers won’t find. As if.
I look for discrepancies between the Vegas lines and the experts’ predictions. I vow to only bet on season win totals that have a disparity of two or more games because anything else is just gambling. as if it all isn’t just gambling. Here are the win totals the experts predict will far outdistance the oddsmakers number.
Texas Tech over 4.5
Louisiana Tech over 4.5
SMU over 6
Illinois over 3.5
Marshall over 7.5
Buffalo under 7.5
Northwestern under 6.5
Memphis under 8.5
For good measure, I threw in Alabama and Clemson under 11.5 because I think it’s ridiculously hard to go undefeated when every program in America is gunning for you.
The one thing I do wish is that there was a definitive site that scraped every expert gambling site on the planet to suggest the picks you should make much like Kayak or Travelocity does with airline fares. Sure, it’s fun to do a little research but after all those hours I still can’t tell you a damn thing about SMU’s defense or Buffalo’s offense. I just know those teams supposedly give me the best chance of winning a season win totals bet. Check back in a few months to see whether the experts were expert in anything other than claiming to be experts.
