The only thing better than watching the NBA Draft, is watching the NBA Draft after you’ve made a bunch of ridiculous bets on the NBA Draft. It’s so funny how after reading 10 mock drafts and listening to all the talking heads you can convince yourself that if a few things had gone differently in your life, you’d be an NBA GM right now making these decisions. Speaking of which, did anyone see the quick peek inside the Raptors war room last night? There was Masai and like 30 white guys under 25 all trying to look busy. I’m always amazed at how many people are in those war rooms. What is everybody doing in there? You need one guy to run the analytics, one guy who actually played the game and one guy that’s good at talking to the media. What are the other 27 guys doing? And why are they all guys?
Not to be outdone, I set up my own person gambling war room for the past month as I tried to figure out what was the surest bet to make on the draft. Here’s the bets I made and how they turned out.
Moses Moody Over 11.5
When the lines first came out, this was the one I couldn’t believe. It’s because I’m a huge NCAA tourney guy and Moody was so bad in the NCAA tourney. Like beyond bad. He was arguably the worst guy on the floor. So how does a guy who couldn’t make a shot in the two most important games of his freshman season all of a sudden become a Top 10 pick. This is what I couldn’t figure out as CBS Sports and others had him going 8 to Orlando or 11 to Charlotte. I bet big on the over and then I got nervous and hedged and took the under a bit. I even took an under at 10.5 which meant if he went 11th I could’ve lost EVERYTHING, which happened to be ESPN’s draft night theme. Had he gone 11th, I would’ve been a great ESPN cut away for losing EVERYTHING. As it stands, I won but not as much as I would’ve if I’d just stuck with my gut.
Ziaire Williams over 18.5 (-140)
This is the one that kills me. Ziaire Williams couldn’t do much of anything at Stanford last year in a weak Pac-12 conference and now he’s a Top 10 pick? Last year he averaged 10 pts., 4 rebs., 2 assists, shot 29% from 3 and couldn’t guard anyone. He was softer than the Stay Puft Marshmallow Man and he’s not that athletic. At least Jalen Johnson, who literally quit on his team at Duke, has some elite athleticism. Williams doesn’t. And while he has a nice looking jumper and handle for a player his size, there’s nothing about his one year of college basketball that should lead anyone to believe he was worthy of a Top 10 pick.
Josh Giddey under 10.5 (-260)
There was so much written about how the Grizzlies moved up to 10 to take Giddey here that you felt like it was a lock. Of course it wasn’t a lock but only because the Thunder took him at 6. How many people betting on this took Giddey without ever having seen him play. I know I’ve never seen him play and I watch more basketball than 99% of the population. I’m not comfortable placing a huge bet on someone I’ve never seen dribble a ball in my life. I bet a little, not a lot.
Jay Huff over 58.5 (-280)
This is the one that really got me. Why was Jay Huff even listed on DraftKings’ prop board? Jay Huff? If you’ve watched Virginia play the last 2-3 years you know Huff went from being an interesting rotation guy off the Virginia bench to a starter who never really evolved past rotation guy status. Don’t get me wrong, Jay Huff is a fine college basketball player. He’s 7’1, can shoot from deep and averaged 13 and 7 this year. Not bad numbers, especially on a Virginia team that limits offensive possessions. But is he a draftable player? Plus, when you talk about stiff white guys, he’s the stiffest of the stiff. There’s no way he can slide his feet and guard someone in today’s screen roll dominant NBA. So the question wasn’t whether this was a good bet, the question is how much of a good bet was it at -280? Could a GM have fallen in love with his size and shooting ability and somehow taken him with the 59th or 60th pick? Absolutely. There was some possibility of that happening. Hell, someone took Santi Aldama in the first round! Who is Santi Aldama? How do you think Jay Huff is feeling today knowing that Santi Aldama went in the first round and he couldn’t even get drafted? For that matter, how do you think Aaron Henry is feeling? Matthew Hurt? DJ Steward? For the record, Huff signed with Washington, Henry signed with the 76ers and Steward signed with Sacramento right after the draft. So it’s not like these guys won’t get an opportunity to make an NBA roster. But the chances of someone actually drafting Huff were pretty slim. I bet that Jay Huff would not get drafted. I knew he wouldn’t get drafted. And when Mark Tatum said, “With the 60th and final selection in the 2021 NBA Draft, the Milwaukee Bucks select Georgios Kalaitzakis,” I breathed a huge sigh of relief. And wished I’d bet more.
