I should’ve gone to law school. Or medical school. Had I done either of those things, I’d be spending my time figuring out how to strengthen the Votings Right Act or protect everyone from the Delta variant. Instead, I’m wondering where Moses Moody will be selected in the NBA Draft.
Like most gamblers, I’m always looking for a sure thing. Something I can place a big bet on to make up for all the little bets I place every day on things I know I shouldn’t be betting on. Like ‘Will Joey Chestnut eat more than 75 hot dogs?’ (he did) or ‘Will the Cubs finally win a game tonight?’ (probably not)
The other day I stumbled upon a number that struck me as odd. DraftKings has odds for the upcoming NBA Draft and where players will be selected. Everyone knows Cade Cunningham will go number 1 but who knows where Moses Moody and Ziaire Williams will go?
Let’s start with Moody. He’s currently listed as a favorite to go over 11.5 (-143) meaning the oddsmakers favor him being selected somewhere after the 11th pick. When I saw this line, I thought it must have been a mistake. Are you telling me that in a draft the experts are calling “deep,” there aren’t 11 players better than Moses Moody? I watched Arkansas in the tourney and in his last two games, Moody may have been the worst player on the floor. Against Oral Roberts and Baylor, he shot a combined 6-30 from the field and 0-7 from distance. And he’s supposed to be a shooter! During his freshman year, he shot 42% from the field and 36% from behind the arc. He’s listed as a shooting guard, but he can’t shoot!
He does have some upside. He’s only 19 years old and he has a 7 foot wingspan, so he’s young and long. That means his game still has a lot of room to develop but scouts are certain he can guard three positions. Plus, he’s a better than average rebounder for his position.
ESPN has him going 17th after guys like Tennessee’s Keon Johnson, Duke’s Jalen Johnson (not related), Michigan’s Franz Wagner, Gonzaga’s Corey Kispert and even Texas’ Kai Jones. There’s also three foreign players slated to go before Moody: Josh Giddey, an Australian shooting guard, Alperen Senhun, a Turkish center and Usman Garuba, a Spanish power forward. Similarly, The Ringer has him going 16th, right after Tre Mann. The problem is CBS has him going 7th to the Warriors and SB Nation has him going 8th to the Orlando Magic. So clearly, it’s not a lock.
This is where I get into trouble. As a gambler and a human, I tend to lock into an idea I think is brilliant and stick with it no matter what the evidence suggests. Sometimes this works out just fine, like buying Apple, Facebook and Google a decade ago. Sometimes it doesn’t work out as well, like when I was 100% sure Lou Williams would win the NBA 6th Man of the Year award last year.
The problem with this bet is the number of variables at play. If Moody has a great individual workout and shoots well, he can easily slip into the Top 10. If a specific GM falls in love with his age and his athleticism, he can move up.
“You should follow his Twitter feed and see where he’s spending the most time,” said my equally degenerate friend Mike. “Worse case scenario for you is he spends a lot of time this week in Orlando.”
I can’t think of anything I’d less rather do than follow Moses Moody on social media like some kind of knock off Brooklyn 911 gambling detective. To be honest, I am still considering it but I think I’d rather go with my gut and stick with my original theory that there has to be 11 more talented players in this draft. We’ll see.
Note: Ziaire Williams is over 18.5 (-143). He had arguably the worst freshman year at Stanford any top tier high school recruit has ever had. I’m not sure Williams would have started at Chicago State. Now all of a sudden he’s still got upside? I’m betting no one will be willing to take a risk on him until the second round.
