The first two rounds of the NCAA tournament is the absolute best time to bet on college basketball because there’s so many inter-conference games, there’s no way for oddsmakers to get every line right. I always find myself wishing I’d pounded a few games harder because as we get to the Sweet 16 the oddsmakers have a much better handle on style of play. The best plays of the tourney so far were:
Oregon/Iowa Over 149.5: The two teams combined for 100 first half points as the nation was reminded that Iowa plays no defense and Oregon, when healthy, is pretty damn explosive on the offensive end.
Loyola Chicago +8 vs Illinois: You couldn’t have predicted the upset but you could’ve predicted that Loyola wouldn’t be sped up or forced into making unnecessary turnovers. The eight points gave you a pretty decent cushion to fall back on.
Oral Roberts +9 vs Florida: Florida struggled to score all year and while they easily could have won the game, getting this many points was a blessing from the gambling gods.
Here are my best bets heading into the Sweet 16:
Baylor + Alabama (Moneyline Parlay) (-120)
I just can’t see Villanova upsetting Baylor or UCLA beating Alabama. I know it’s possible. I know Villanova will have a game plan to slow Baylor down and take care of the ball. I just don’t think they have enough offense to keep up. Same with UCLA. It’s one thing to handle Michigan State (horrible offensively) and Abilene Christian (horrible at everything except beating Texas) but it’s something else to keep up with Alabama and their relentless pursuit of offensive efficiency.
Syracuse +7
I understand that Alabama may very well win the game but will they blow Syracuse out? Isn’t Syracuse a much better offensive team than Rutgers? And didn’t Rutgers have the game won with less than four minutes to go? And doesn’t Houston struggle from long range and may, like most teams, need a half to figure out the zone? I don’t understand this line. And that scares me.
Baylor + Uconn + Stanford + Maryland + South Carolina (Women’s Moneyline Parlay -177)
Look at some of the scores from the first weekend of the women’s tournament: Maryland 100, Alabama 64. Baylor 90 Virginia Tech 48. Uconn 83 Syracuse 47. The distance between the #1 seeds and the rest of the field is like driving from Miami to Los Angeles. It’s the difference between Jeff Bezos’ bank account and your mother’s. What I’m saying is the top teams in women’s college basketball are a lot better than the lower seeds. Sure there is the chance of an upset as the tournament progresses. But with the shot clock and the three point line, there’s very little chance any of these top seeds loses this weekend. Of course one of them will now lose for sure but I’m willing to lay the $177 to win $100 to see it happen.
Paige Bueckers Is Steph Curry Reincarnate
If you haven’t seen Paige Bueckers play yet, you’re missing out. This girl is ah-mazing. Her jumper is fire. Like Steph Curry at Davidson fire. Her handle is tight. Like Kyrie at Duke tight. OK, maybe not that tight. For a primer, check out this video. And when you’re done, check out Uconn against Iowa Saturday morning. If you like basketball, you won’t be disappointed. If she leads Uconn to the title as a freshman, they’ll have to retire her jersey, give her a statue and declare a national holiday in her honor. Happy Paige Bueckers Day!
