March Madness trails only the World Cup, the Super Bowl and the Kentucky Derby as the most wagered on sporting event during any year. According to the American Gaming Association, more than $9 billion is bet legally and illegally on the NCAA tournament. But I’ve always believed the best time to make money betting on college basketball is the two weeks leading up to conference tournaments and the conference tournaments themselves. As we head into the greatest month of the year for college hoop fans, these are the key questions gamblers should be asking themselves.
1. Can Gonzaga Ever Really Be The Favorite?
It’s the same question every year for the Zags. Yes, this team is more athletic than many of the past. Yes, Suggs is a transcendent talent. Yes, Kispert has taken a leap no one saw coming. Yes, Timme has developed faster than most thought. And yes, inserting Nembhard into the starting line-up to give the team another great passing guard with a high IQ may have been the single thing the Zags needed to reach another level. But the fact remains, as they head into the tournament the Zags will have played against the likes of Pepperdine, Pacific, San Diego and Santa Clara to get themselves ready. Sure they beat Kansas, West Virginia and Iowa but that was in November. What happens when they have to face a team team like Houston or Florida State that’s arguably more athletic? For me, the key is Suggs’ ability to stay out of foul trouble and be a little more selfish in crunch time when you need someone to make a play. And then there’s Anton Watson. Watson is the Zags’ most athletic wing defender and while he hasn’t had a great year he’ll be important come tourney time when you need someone to guard the other team’s best wing and grab a key defensive board.
2. Can Michigan Win With Dickinson In Foul Trouble?
The Wolverines put on an absolute clinic on Sunday in Columbus. That first half was more beautiful than herd immunity. And of course the key to it all was Dickinson. He went 8-14 from the field for 22 points and grabbed 9 boards. Every time the Michigan half court offense is in trouble they can always throw it to Dickinson on the low block or run screen roll with the surprisingly agile big man. The one thing Ohio State and E.J Liddell failed to do on Sunday was make him play defense on the perimeter and try to drive the ball against him to draw fouls. Liddell hit his first few jumpers and spent the majority of the game shooting over Dickinson instead of putting pressure on the Michigan defense by driving to the cup. Without Dickinson, Michigan is still a good team but they’re extremely beatable. With him playing at a high level, they’re almost an impossible out.
Note: If you’re not rooting for Juwan Howard to succeed, you’re un-American. Well, you’re not un-American. You can still be an American but you’re just not my preferred kind of American. By all accounts, Howard is such a good dude. Respects the game. Treats everyone the right way. Just a great human being. And, most importantly, he’s a Chicago Public League alumni (CVS).
3. Is it Possible To Win It All With A Four Guard Line-Up?
Baylor has gone almost exclusively to a four guard lineup in crunch time featuring Butler, Teague, Mitchell and Flagler. That puts the 6’5 Vital at center. And while Vital is certainly up to being Baylor’s Draymond Green, they’ll need more size when trying to defend anyone with a legit post threat. When was the last time a team won the NCAA title with a four guard lineup? Villanova with all those McClains and Ed Pinckney in the middle? Growing up in Chicago in the 1950’s, my father played in the Chicago Public League in the “Juniors Division” which was for players 6 feet and under. It seems like an ideal form of basketball but against a good coach that lack of size is going to result in a bunch of low post isolations that will force Baylor to substitute and play Thamba or Mayer more often in late game situations which makes the offense less potent.
4. Can Anyone Besides Gonzaga, Baylor and Michigan Cut Down The Nets?
Of course they can. Ohio State is deep and talented enough to beat anyone on any given night. It doesn’t help that Aherns has been an offensive contributor all season but went 0-2 against Michigan and didn’t score. I get that he’s a spot up shooter in the Duncan Robinson mold but he’s got to be able to score a little bit even with someone “in his jock” all game.
Note: Whenever my high school coach wanted you to guard someone closely he’d always say, “Get in his jock.” Seems like it wouldn’t smell too nice in someone else’s jock. Just sayin’.
Alabama has a great coach and a talented team when their shots are falling. Villanova isn’t that talented but they play so hard and together. I can’t see them beating any of the top 3 teams but if Robinson-Earl plays out of his mind for three weeks in March, I guess it’s possible. West Virginia is a nice team on a roll and Deuce McBride has come out of nowhere to be a great college success story. Florida State is always intriguing. They have length, athleticism, and they own the 9th best offense in the nation. Houston has Kelvin Sampson and one of the saddest things about this COVID season has been the fact that you can’t see how angry Sampson gets under his mask. They have a good squad but I don’t trust Quentin Grimes in critical moments. I just don’t. Texas Tech is tough as nails but they rely on McClung too much on offense for them to be a real threat to win it all. Creighton is interesting but they were so bad for such a long stretch it’s hard to know if they’ve really righted the ship. USC is 19-4 but the Pac-12 isn’t very good and the Mobleys are just so skinny. He’s the one 7 footer I think Mark Vital would have little trouble guarding because he’d be able to push him damn near the bench on every possession.
5. Will Duke Make The Field?
And if they don’t, will their fans storm NCAA headquarters and demand a recount? For basketball purists, you gotta love the fact that the moment uber talented freshman Jalen Johnson decided he was too good for college basketball, the team’s level of play dramatically improved. All of a sudden Jeremy Roach and DJ Steward are making shots and Mark Williams is Marcus Camby. Duke has Louisville, Georgia Tech and Carolina left on the schedule. If they win out, they’re in. If they go 2-1 and win a game or two in the ACC tourney, they’re in. Why anyone cares, I’m not sure but the tournament is always more fun when you can root against the Blue Devils.
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