I’m Betting On Myself and Rodgers and Mahomes

The world of sports and business is replete with athletes and entrepreneurs who bet on themselves and win. Jeff Bezos bet on himself when he scribbled the idea for Amazon on a napkin. He won! Gordon Hayward opted out of the final year of his contract with the Celtics and was rewarded with a head scratching four year $120 million deal with the Hornets. Winner! Same with Danilo Gallinari (3 years, $61 million) and Fred VanVleet (4 years, $85 million).

I don’t want to feel left out, so I too am betting on myself. When I launched The Bad Gambler a month ago, I was under no illusions that it would have immediate success. I enjoy writing and am happy to have a place to express myself even if my readership is limited to my parents (occasionally), my wife (rarely), a bunch of twenty-something investors and Middle Eastern graduate students who follow a Motley Fool Bloggers’ Facebook page and a few degenerate gamblers who have urged me to stop betting moneyline parlays every day because in the history of sports betting no one has gotten rich betting moneyline parlays.

“Moneyline parlays are for suckers,” a friend recently said. “You can’t win betting them long term, so why do you keep doing it?”

“Has there been a study that proves that,” I asked, knowing he hadn’t done the research.

“I don’t know. But it’s just one of those things I know, you know.”

“I only follow the science,” I said, because that’s what everyone says these days when someone disagrees with you.

Despite the fact that my readership isn’t what I’d hoped, I find myself looking at WordPress’ Stats and Insights page every morning to see if my audience is growing.  Over the course of the first two months, I’m getting anywhere from 150-300 visitors per day. That’s not horrible but it’s not exactly Kardashian social media metrics. To make matters worse, there are days where readership is under 50. Like Wednesday, there were only 46 visitors to The Bad Gambler. On those days, I feel depressed, like Melania must’ve felt boarding the plane with that guy, with that hair, and that face, who was no longer President. How long until divorce papers are filed in that marriage?

But I’ve figured out a solution to my initial lack of readership. One day last week I went to the site to see how it looked, clicked on a story, then came back to the statistics page and saw the number of visitors had increased by one. Brilliant! I mean, it’s not Bezos’ napkin brilliant  or Musk’s batteries brilliant but the fact that I can increase my readership by clicking on my own stories, and make myself feel better about myself, feels smart. On days when readership is down, I am committed to putting in the work to boost my numbers to give myself a heightened sense of accomplishment.

Critics will say clicking on your own stories to boost your readership is exactly what’s plaguing our nation.

“No one does anything anymore unless there’s an audience,” these critics say.

That’s the Instagram Live effect. I am amazed at the number of people who do Instagram Lives. As I think about more ways to promote The Bad Gambler, I stumbled on Instagram Live and am absolutely fascinated by people doing their morning twerk workout in front of 20-30 friends. God bless them and God Bless America!

Betting on Aaron Rodgers and Patrick MaHomes

As for my betting strategy this weekend, of course I’m betting a moneyline parlay on the Packers and the Chiefs. Aaron Rodgers is playing the best football of his life and Patrick Mahomes, on a bum foot with a concussion, is still the most explosive QB in the playoffs. Plus, I’ve never much cared for Tom Brady. The fact that he’s able to keep to such a strict diet, even in the off-season, makes me not trust him. Eat a piece of chocolate cake once in awhile god dammit.

Another reason I don’t like Tom Brady is my friend Ann. Ann and I went to school together and she, like many women from New England, has always had a huge crush on TB12. Yes, she wears his jersey on Sundays. Yes, she has a large cardboard cutout of him in her house. And yes, I truly believe that if Tom Brady showed up at her door one day, she would forget about Harvey, the husband she’s faithfully loved for the past decade, and make sweet love to Tampa Tom. Men that make devoted wives completely forget about their husbands don’t deserve your gambling dollars. No one is cheating on their husband if a bearded Aaron Rodgers or Sideshow Bob Mahomes comes-a-knocking. Plus, a Packers-Chiefs moneyline parlay is +142 on DraftKings.

I will also likely hedge a bit and try to win both by parlaying Bucs +7.5 and Bills +7.5 (+100) because these are four evenly matched teams and I expect the games to be close. Oh, and I agree with Bill Simmons that Josh Allen over 33.5 rushing yards makes a lot of sense.

Enjoy the games. And eat a piece of cake.