It’s the most fantastic time of the year. The start of the college basketball season. Not even the election can ruin the excitement of this epic year in college basketball. There are so many things to be excited about this season. In no particular order, this season will feature:
- Uconn attempting to 3-peat with only one starter returning.
- Alabama trying to Golden State their way to a title by shooting more 3’s than anyone else by a wide margin.
- Gonzaga bringing almost everyone back and trying to be like Alabama only with better D.
- Kansas hoping that slow, plodding, super-annoying Hunter Dickinson doesn’t totally suck again.
- The Great White Hope, aka Cooper Flagg, who may or may not be the next Larry Bird, attempting to prove that you can win a title by being unselfish and playing as hard on the defensive end of the floor as you do on offense.
- Rutgers’ season featuring two ridiculously talented freshmen and no one else. Can Ace Bailey and Dylan Harper make Rutgers relevant?
- Houston bringing everyone back except Jamal Shead and trying to repeat as Big 12 regular season champs.
- Iowa State, the Iowa football of college basketball, trying to win with defense again.
- Caleb Love playing yet another year of college basketball because no one in the NBA wants him. Love is our Malik Monk. Incredible when he’s on and disastrous when he’s not.
- Purdue in the post-Edey era. Does anyone really want to watch Smith and Loyer play basketball without the 7’4 Edey to marvel at? It’s like watching Superbad without McLovin. Not so fun.
- Carolina without Bacot.
- Kentucky without Calipari.
- Arkansas with Calipari.
BETTING ON REGULAR SEASON CHAMPS
From a gambling standpoint, the thing that makes the most sense is to find a few storylines that make sense and bet em before the season starts. For me, that starts with Gonzaga. They return everyone except Anton Watson and while Watson was a key glue guy last year, they more than replaced his production in the portal with Michael Ajayi and Khalif Battle. Plus, and this is key, St. Mary’s lost its two best players to the portal. Plus, it’s Marl Few’s last year in the WCC, and he’s going to want to leave the conference he dominated for the previous two decades on a winning note.
The oddsmakers agree, as the Zags are -550 to win the regular season title. So we start with that as our base and look for something equally as enticing to pair it with. I have no idea who will win the Big 12, as Houston, Kansas, Iowa State, and maybe even Arizona are all legit contenders. I guess I can see Uconn winning the Big East again, but I don’t know how last year’s subs will fare as this year’s starters. I don’t know if Alabama, Auburn or Tennessee will win the SEC although I suspect Alabama will. That leaves the ACC. And while I don’t know who will win the regular season, I feel confident that it will either be Duke or North Carolina.
So, I’m making the following bets:
Gonzaga + Duke (+130)
Gonzaga + North Carolina (+467)
Wake Forest (+1200)
I place the most on Gonzaga and Duke, roughly half on Gonzaga and Carolina and a smidge on Wake Forest in case they shock the world. As long as Gonzaga wins the WCC and either Duke or Carolina wins the ACC, we do well for ourselves. I like our chances.
The End
