How Much Is Too Much To Bet On Julius Randle?

The number haunts me when I wake up in the morning. -500. Minus five hundred represents the current odds for whether or not Julius Randle will be named the NBA’s Most Improved Player this year. If ever there was a lock for an NBA award, this is it. Randle has single handedly turned the worst franchise in the NBA into a playoff team. For the season, he’s averaging 23.9 points (20th), 10.4 rebounds (11th) and 6.0 assists (23rd). According to DraftKings, the next closest contender is the Pistons’ Jerami Grant at +400. Grant’s numbers are 22.5 points (22nd), 4.6 rebounds (96th) and 2.8 assists (80th). In addition to putting up inferior numbers, Grant missed a bunch of games and plays for one of the three worst teams in the league. Randle absolutely has this award wrapped up. Unless he doesn’t.

So the question is, how much should I bet on it? I’m not a professional gambler. I do it as a hobby. But when you come across something you think is as sure a thing as a thing can be, aren’t you supposed to bet big? Isn’t that the way the pros do it?

There are a number of factors to consider. First, what’s the percentage return? As an English major, it took me a good 1o minutes to figure this out but I’m pretty sure if I risk $500 to win $100, I’d be getting a 20% return on my money. The next questions is, ‘Where else can I get a 20% return on my money in the next 3 months?’ Here’s a short list I came up with:

• Alphabet: Google’s parent company rose 4.8% after first quarter revenue topped expectations. Google could certainly  rise 14% in the next two months by creating new products like driverless airplanes or remote controlled shopping carts. A long term investment in Google would most definitely be worth far more than a long term investment in Julius Randle but over the next two months I still like Randle.

• TSLA: At a P/E of 1,101.16, Tesla would have to sell roughly 1,256,422 cars in the next two months and even then it would still be wildly overvalued. Still, it could go up 20% in two months because, you know, it’s Tesla.

• GBTC: Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (BTC) could absolutely go up 15% in two months. It could go up 200% in two months. Or it could drop 100% in two months.

• COIN: Is crypto the future currency of the global economy? If so, Coinbase Global could be worth a lot more than $302/share moving forward.

• AMC or GME: There’s no rhyme or reason to the stock price valuations so I if I start a movement to make AMC or GME worth more than a Julius Randle futures bet, that seems like as good a reason as any to move the price.

• StockX: Someone just bought a Yeezy for over $1 million bucks. If I can just buy the right pair of shoes, I can make a fortune.

“Nothing is a sure thing,” my dad reminded me. “It was a sure thing that Chad Boseman was going to win best actor until Anthony Hopkins won. Bet whatever you’d be comfortable losing because that can happen too.”

Sounds like good advice to me.